Apple is facing a steep increase in the cost of memory components for its incoming iPhone 18 Pro, according to market intelligence firm TrendForce. The firm estimates that Apple will pay nearly 400% more for the memory used in the 256GB Pro model than it did for the same tier on the iPhone 17 Pro. That supply-chain shock is expected to affect Apple's pricing decisions at a pivotal time, as the company prepares to reveal its next iPhone lineup.

Key facts at a glance

• Memory costs for the 256GB iPhone 18 Pro are projected to be nearly 400% higher in the third quarter of 2026 than a year earlier.
• Apple is unlikely to pass the full cost increase on to customers.
• A retail price increase of around $100 over the iPhone 17 Pro is widely expected.
• Apple will lean on services revenue to help offset higher hardware manufacturing costs.
• TrendForce also says Apple's first folding device, the iPhone Ultra, could start at up to $2,299 and exceed $3,000 in its most expensive configuration.

The latest numbers come from a research note covering the supply chain for Apple's 2026 flagship phones. According to TrendForce, memory costs in 3Q26 are forecast to be close to four times what Apple paid during the equivalent period last year. Apple has reportedly pushed back on component pricing and tried to secure better deals elsewhere in the bill of materials, but those savings will not be enough to erase the memory-related pressure.

The memory market has been through several cycles in recent years, but the scale of this increase is unusual. Demand from data centers, artificial-intelligence training, and cloud infrastructure has tightened supply for memory manufacturers. Phone makers are also shipping devices with larger storage and faster memory standards, which keeps pressure on supply. For a company like Apple that buys memory in enormous volumes, a 400% cost swing is a serious challenge to absorb without changing retail prices.

Apple's big pricing decision

Apple raised prices across most of its product line in June, saying at the time that it had delayed the move as long as possible but no longer had a choice. Currency fluctuations, component costs, and rising operating expenses were all cited as factors. Yet Apple did not raise the prices of its existing iPhone models at that event. That apparent hesitation is expected to end when the next iPhones are announced after the summer.

The likely compromise is a price increase of roughly $100 over the iPhone 17 Pro at launch. That is far below the literal pass-through of the memory cost jump, but TrendForce believes Apple will shelter customers from the full impact in order to protect demand. The research firm points out that aggressive price increases could give even loyal Apple fans a reason to hold on to older phones for longer. In a weak global economy, consumers are already being more careful about large purchases, so an unusually large price jump would be risky.

The decision is not straightforward. If Apple sets the iPhone 18 Pro price too high, it may fail to hit shipment targets and struggle to keep the iPhone franchise growing. If Apple keeps prices too close to the previous generation, it will have to accept thinner margins on one of the most expensive products it makes. The timing makes the challenge harder because component costs are expected to stay elevated through much of the product's sales cycle.

Apple has little incentive to slow down its recent growth. Services have become a major source of revenue and profit, but the company still needs to sell new iPhones to keep the installed base expanding. TrendForce describes the current situation as a balancing act, with retail price increases looking increasingly unavoidable even while Apple does everything it can to limit them.

Services revenue as a cushion

One reason Apple can tolerate rising hardware costs is the growing strength of its services business. Revenue from the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Pay, and other subscriptions now represents a significant part of the company's financial results. Unlike hardware, services do not face the same exposure to memory prices, shipping costs, or tariffs. Once a customer joins Apple’s ecosystem, services can generate recurring revenue for years.

Apple is likely to lean on that services strength as it works through what TrendForce calls elevated hardware manufacturing costs. A smaller profit on the iPhone itself can be partially offset by the long-term value of bringing a new customer into the ecosystem. The company has also bundled more services into its premium tiers and has continued to push subscription features, including expanded storage plans that make the iCloud revenue model even more important to Apple’s bottom line.

Still, services are not a direct substitute for hardware margin. A customer who buys a new iPhone may subscribe to several services, but the revenue from those services arrives over time and is not guaranteed. If memory costs push the price of the iPhone 18 Pro above a psychological threshold, some consumers may delay their upgrade for a year or more, and that delay also postpones the services relationship. That is why TrendForce expects Apple to take a moderate approach to pricing rather than simply adding the full memory cost to the price tag.

The iPhone Ultra prediction

TrendForce has also issued a prediction for Apple’s first folding iPhone, a product frequently referred to as the iPhone Ultra in industry reporting. According to the research firm, the device could start at up to $2,299, with the highest-end configuration potentially moving past $3,000. Those would be record prices for an iPhone and would put the foldable into a premium tier far above the traditional Pro models.

The ultra-premium positioning makes sense if folding technology remains expensive to produce. Hinges, foldable displays, custom screen glass, and new internal layouts all add cost. Apple has also been careful to avoid the reliability problems that have hurt some folding phones from competitors. If it enters the category, it is likely to do so with a small number of high-priced SKUs and a limited launch volume.

The high price would not be Apple's only challenge. The folding iPhone would need to demonstrate that it is more than an expensive experiment. It would have to offer meaningful productivity and media benefits while maintaining battery life, durability, and everyday usability. At $2,299 or higher, early buyers will expect the device to feel like a genuine leap forward, not just a foldable shell around existing components.

TrendForce's report arrives just before Apple’s next hardware event, which is expected to take place in the coming week. That event should bring clarity on the iPhone 18 and iPhone 18 Pro pricing tiers, as well as the official announcement schedule for the iPhone Ultra if Apple decides that the time is right. In the meantime, the memory market remains the central pricing obstacle for Apple's best-known product.

Source: 9to5Mac News